What the Polls Can Tell Us About the Early Days of Trump's Second Term

 

What the Polls Can Tell Us About the Early Days of Trump's Second Term

Polling in the early weeks of a new administration can be challenging for several reasons. In short, things are moving quickly, and voters may take time to process the changes since the election.

However, a few key takeaways stand out from the early polls on President Donald Trump’s second term. Most surveys indicate that his approval rating has slightly improved compared to when he first took office in 2017, and there is broad public agreement on some of his major policy proposals.

The Pros for Trump

Trump’s current approval rating ranges from the high 40s to the low 50s in different polls, a few points higher than it was in early 2017. (A similar trend was observed in polling conducted just before and after Trump first took office.)

As expected, these numbers are largely driven by strong partisan divides and a deep split among independent voters. However, a recent Pew Research Center study shows that Republicans have more confidence in Trump now than they did in 2017 regarding his mental fitness, ethical behavior, and ability to select good advisers.

Polling also indicates broad support for some of Trump’s key policy priorities. Multiple surveys show that a majority of Americans favor mass deportations (59% in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll). Additionally, pre-inauguration polling found support for prioritizing domestic issues over international ones and for banning transgender women from competing in women’s sports.

The Cons for Trump

However, when Trump shifts his policy agenda toward the far-right flank of his party, he tends to lose support.

For example, his decision to pardon individuals convicted of violent crimes related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol is widely unpopular, according to polls from Pew and The Economist/YouGov. Polling from YouGov, in collaboration with both CBS and The Economist, also found that Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are unpopular. Additionally, fewer than a quarter of respondents support billionaire Elon Musk having significant influence over the Trump administration.

Furthermore, while Trump claimed on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in December, “I won on the border and I won on groceries,” the CBS News/YouGov poll found that 66% of Americans believe his administration is not doing enough to lower the prices of goods and services. A recent Quinnipiac University poll also identified the economy as the most pressing issue. In the CBS News/YouGov survey, 51% of respondents said Trump’s policies would make grocery prices rise, while only 28% believed they would bring prices down.

Bottom Line

Despite Trump’s claim of a sweeping mandate following an election that put Republicans in full control of Washington, polling suggests that the country remains as deeply divided as ever. When Pew asked Americans whether Trump would make government better or worse, 41% said better, 42% said worse, and a small but decisive group remained uncertain.